Raising the Bar: How Dynamic Baselines Are Redefining Forest Carbon
As each day passes, the urgency for meaningful climate action becomes more immediate, and the voluntary carbon market (VCM) stands out as one of the most effective tools for driving progress today.
While engineered carbon removal technologies continue to advance, forests remain one of our most powerful and immediate climate solutions. Globally, forests absorb nearly 16 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide annually in their trees, roots, and soils. Protecting and sustainably managing these ecosystems is crucial for achieving our net-zero targets.
Yet we are not on track. According to the UN’s Emissions Gap Report, we are on a path to nearly 2.5°C of warming this century, well above the 1.5°C goal. We cannot afford to waste time.
Improved Forest Management (IFM) has long been one of the carbon market's most utilized climate tools. Like any effective climate solution, IFM project development has evolved with time. The methods used to assess and verify these projects have grown more sophisticated with the advancement of technology, ensuring greater quality and credibility.
One of the latest and most significant advancements in IFM project development is the introduction of dynamic baselines through American Carbon Registry’s (ACR) Improved Forest Management protocol version 2.1. This methodology represents a next-generation approach to assessing carbon impact using real-world data to measure baselines more effectively.
What are dynamic baselines?
In a carbon credit project, a “baseline” refers to the expected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that would occur if the carbon project were not implemented. This reference scenario is critical; any emission reductions or removals beyond it can be credited as a genuine climate impact.
A well-defined baseline is essential to project integrity, helping prevent over-crediting and ensuring that each carbon credit reflects a real, measurable benefit.
Historically, these baselines were established at the beginning of a project and remained fixed over its lifetime. As new data, remote sensing, and analytical tools became available, a better approach emerged — dynamic baselines.
So, what makes dynamic baselines different?
Unlike static baselines, dynamic baselines are not locked in at the start of a project’s crediting period. Instead, the baseline is established and then updated regularly using real-world data to reflect evolving environmental conditions, timber markets, and land management practices.
This shift is especially important for IFM projects. Dynamic baselines strengthen market trust by offering more accurate comparisons and greater transparency, accounting for real-world variables like evolving policies, timber market economics, mill capacity, and road access that influence how forests are managed.
Benefits of Dynamic Baselines
As demand for high-quality carbon credits increases, dynamic baselines allow forest carbon projects to ensure accuracy and transparency. This approach benefits developers, landowners, and buyers by utilizing real-time data and improved monitoring tools.
- Improved accuracy
Dynamic baselines reflect current local forest conditions using satellite imagery, ground-level data, and analytical tools. This monitoring process ensures the baseline closely mirrors reality, minimizing the risk of error or outdated assumptions.
- Greater buyer confidence
By comparing project management to trends on similar lands nearby, dynamic baselines give buyers added confidence that credits represent real, additional climate benefits, not theoretical outcomes.
- More transparency
These data-driven baselines are regularly updated and create a clear, verifiable record of project performance, offering higher visibility to investors and other stakeholders.
- Alignment with new standards
Projects that utilize dynamic baselines under ACR’s version 2.1 protocol are increasingly viewed as the new benchmark for IFM and align with broader voluntary market trends toward enhanced integrity.
Anew’s Commitment to Quality
At Anew, we go beyond minimum standards to ensure every credit reflects true climate impact. While ACR’s protocol version 2.1 requires projects to update their baseline every five years, Anew refreshes project baselines at every credit issuance —far exceeding the standard and vastly improving credit accuracy over time.
For comparison, under previous static baseline methodologies, baselines were typically updated only once every 20 years. Our approach delivers a more responsive and realistic reflection of forest conditions and management, reinforcing the integrity of every credit we issue.
We have also developed our own proprietary dynamic baseline establishment and monitoring technology, the Epoch Evaluation Platform™, to redefine dynamic baselining standards.
The Epoch Evaluation Platform™ combines high-frequency satellite monitoring, machine learning, ground-level data collection, and cloud computing to create real-time, dynamic baseline models. By tracking forest trends and economic drivers, the Epoch Evaluation Platform™ ensures that credit generation reflects current realities, not outdated projections.
While the technology underlying the Epoch Evaluation Platform™ was originally developed for military, aerospace, and academic applications, it now brings an unmatched level of precision to IFM carbon projects. While ACR protocol version 2.1 sets a new bar for dynamic baselining, Epoch goes even further, machine learning, improved landownership mapping, and high-resolution satellite imagery to refine how baselines are established and updated.
This technology enables more accurate project comparisons, enhances transparency, and strengthens buyer confidence by ensuring every credit reflects measurable, additional climate impact tied to real-world forest activity.
The Future of IFM Projects
Dynamic baselines represent a major step forward for IFM projects, transforming how they are designed, monitored, and verified. While still emerging, they are quickly becoming the new standard for transparency and buyer confidence.
Credits generated under protocols like ACR’s v2.1 carry a premium in the market, reflecting their enhanced quality and the assurances they deliver to buyers seeking the highest-integrity climate solutions.
This shift signals a clear direction for forest carbon: methodologies that are more adaptive, data-driven, and aligned with evolving expectations around integrity and impact. While traditional static baselines will remain a vital part of the VCM, dynamic baselines are charting a new path forward, one that empowers landowners, developers, and buyers to invest with greater confidence.
With tools like dynamic baselines and Anew’s Epoch Evaluation Platform™ now gaining traction, confidence in credit quality is on the rise. These innovations help reinforce the VCM’s critical role in meeting global climate goals.
As climate change continues to affect communities, ecosystems, and economies around the world, the need to act is clear. Carbon markets remain one of the most immediate levers we can pull to drive measurable climate progress.
Want to learn more about Anew’s dynamic baseline approach or how carbon credits can support your climate strategy? Let’s simplify decarbonization together and drive real, lasting impact. Contact us today to speak to a carbon advisor.